Questions about the most popular movies, TV, music, games, celebrities, and the awards surrounding it all. More broadly, questions about demographics, cultural trends, and societal issues.
| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 22 | D | 0.2996 | A- | -0.013 |
| Manifold | 30 | D | 0.2325 | D+ | +0.018 |
| Metaculus | 8 | D | 0.2018 | F | +0.051 |
| Polymarket | 26 | D+ | 0.1734 | A- | -0.008 |
| Overall | 86 | D | 0.2290 | C | 0.0052 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.032 |
| Manifold | D- | +0.032 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.004 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.002 |
| Manifold | B | -0.005 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.195 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |
| Kalshi | S | -0.177 |
| Manifold | F | +0.159 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.169 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.013 |
Predictions for financial markets, economic indicators, and cryptocurrency. Includes forecasts on inflation, interest rates, commodity prices, and major economic developments worldwide.
| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 13 | C | 0.0727 | A- | -0.008 |
| Manifold | 34 | C | 0.1218 | C- | +0.010 |
| Metaculus | 17 | C | 0.1201 | C+ | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | 16 | C | 0.1245 | A- | -0.011 |
| Overall | 80 | C | 0.1140 | B | 0.0015 |
| Kalshi | D | +0.016 |
| Manifold | F | +0.042 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.016 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.038 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.023 |
| Manifold | B+ | -0.009 |
| Polymarket | F | +0.043 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.007 |
| Metaculus | B | -0.007 |
| Polymarket | D | +0.018 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.004 |
| Kalshi | C- | +0.007 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
Tracking electoral outcomes, policy changes, and geopolitical events. Covers national and international politics, including elections, conflicts, treaties, and major diplomatic developments.
| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 90 | D+ | 0.1606 | B+ | -0.006 |
| Manifold | 215 | D+ | 0.1779 | C | +0.005 |
| Metaculus | 96 | C- | 0.1489 | C+ | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | 159 | D+ | 0.1634 | B | -0.001 |
| Overall | 560 | D+ | 0.1660 | B | 0.0013 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.027 |
| Manifold | F | +0.039 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.026 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.017 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.000 |
| Manifold | B | -0.005 |
| Metaculus | C+ | -0.000 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.009 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.012 |
| Metaculus | A- | -0.011 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | F | +0.036 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.032 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.006 |
| Manifold | F | +0.058 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.060 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.002 |
| Manifold | D | +0.021 |
| Metaculus | A- | -0.013 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.012 |
Following advances across scientific disciplines, from climate research to space exploration and biotechnology. When will the next advances happen, and how much of an impact will they have?
| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 20 | C | 0.1046 | C+ | +0.004 |
| Manifold | 31 | D | 0.1946 | C | +0.008 |
| Metaculus | 15 | D | 0.2286 | A- | -0.006 |
| Polymarket | 16 | C | 0.0622 | A | -0.025 |
| Overall | 82 | C- | 0.1530 | B | -0.0021 |
| Kalshi | F | +0.105 |
| Manifold | A | -0.038 |
| Polymarket | S | -0.249 |
| Kalshi | D- | +0.025 |
| Manifold | F | +0.044 |
| Polymarket | S | -0.085 |
Forecasting outcomes in professional athletics. Covers game results, championship predictions, player performance metrics, and olympic medals.
| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 22 | D- | 0.3364 | A- | -0.013 |
| Manifold | 38 | F | 0.4329 | C- | +0.012 |
| Metaculus | 5 | F | 0.3958 | D | +0.024 |
| Polymarket | 29 | D | 0.2519 | A- | -0.010 |
| Overall | 94 | D- | 0.3525 | B | 0.0001 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.002 |
| Manifold | C | +0.005 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.003 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | A | -0.021 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.044 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | B | -0.006 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.007 |
| Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
| Manifold | A- | -0.010 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | B+ | -0.010 |
| Metaculus | D+ | +0.012 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.024 |
Monitoring innovations in the tech industry such as new devices and AI capabilities. Also covers new advancements in tech such as blockchain, quantum computing, and virtual reality.
| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 16 | D | 0.2997 | A- | -0.014 |
| Manifold | 28 | D | 0.2785 | C+ | +0.005 |
| Metaculus | 12 | D+ | 0.1742 | C+ | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | 13 | C- | 0.1534 | B | -0.001 |
| Overall | 69 | D | 0.2417 | B | -0.0008 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.002 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.002 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.000 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Kalshi | D | +0.022 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.029 |
| Manifold | D | +0.021 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.008 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | D | +0.022 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.002 |