Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.9604 | -3.9120 | 0.0204 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.7826 | -2.1598 | 0.1293 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.9025 | -2.9957 | 0.0526 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0361 | -0.2107 | 0.9736 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.000 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1369 | -0.4620 | 0.8623 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0765 | -0.3237 | 0.9341 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0363 | -0.2112 | 0.9734 |
| Relative Score | C- | +0.008 | -0.018 | -0.010 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.1756 | -0.5430 | 0.8111 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.1614 | -0.5137 | 0.8302 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0382 | -0.2175 | 0.9717 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | -0.001 | +0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4243 | -1.6390 | 0.5646 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.3401 | -0.9990 | 0.6312 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.9025 | -2.9957 | 0.0526 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0369 | -0.2132 | 0.9729 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | A | -0.021 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.044 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.005 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |