Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.6182 | -1.5429 | 0.2624 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5745 | -1.4186 | 0.3042 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.6402 | -1.6102 | 0.2423 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.3194 | -0.8327 | 0.6098 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.131 | -0.313 | -0.154 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3600 | -0.9163 | 0.5547 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2364 | -0.6660 | 0.7263 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D- | 0.3540 | -0.9039 | 0.5627 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2500 | -0.6931 | 0.7071 |
| Relative Score | S | -0.131 | +0.313 | +0.154 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4891 | -1.2296 | 0.4085 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4055 | -1.0423 | 0.5152 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.4971 | -1.2570 | 0.4025 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2847 | -0.7629 | 0.6585 |
| Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
| Manifold | A- | -0.010 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |