Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.8450 | -2.5165 | 0.0875 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.7064 | -1.8354 | 0.1865 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.9127 | -3.1095 | 0.0467 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4323 | -1.0715 | 0.4620 |
| Relative Score | D+ | +0.013 | -0.042 | -0.013 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.6162 | -1.5371 | 0.2642 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4346 | -1.0766 | 0.4592 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2550 | -0.7032 | 0.7000 |
| Relative Score | A- | -0.013 | +0.042 | +0.013 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7306 | -2.0268 | 0.1758 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5705 | -1.4560 | 0.3228 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.9127 | -3.1095 | 0.0467 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.3437 | -0.8874 | 0.5810 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.005 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |