Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4489 | -1.1087 | 0.4418 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.3235 | -0.8411 | 0.6042 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0625 | -0.2877 | 0.9487 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0441 | -0.2357 | 0.9664 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.005 | +0.012 | +0.005 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4761 | -1.1712 | 0.4098 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3807 | -0.9598 | 0.5274 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0576 | -0.2744 | 0.9536 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0459 | -0.2410 | 0.9648 |
| Relative Score | C- | +0.005 | -0.014 | -0.006 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.1089 | -0.4005 | 0.8971 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0415 | -0.2278 | 0.9688 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0380 | -0.2169 | 0.9719 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.000 | +0.002 | +0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3446 | -0.8934 | 0.5829 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2486 | -0.6762 | 0.7001 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0601 | -0.2811 | 0.9511 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0427 | -0.2312 | 0.9677 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.003 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.009 |
| Polymarket | B | -0.007 |