Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5756 | -1.4217 | 0.3031 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.5045 | -1.2388 | 0.3777 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2583 | -0.7097 | 0.6954 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0098 | -0.1044 | 0.9940 |
| Relative Score | B- | -0.003 | +0.011 | +0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0552 | -0.2679 | 0.9559 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0453 | -0.2394 | 0.9653 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0441 | -0.2357 | 0.9664 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.003 | -0.011 | -0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3154 | -0.8448 | 0.6295 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2749 | -0.7391 | 0.6715 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2583 | -0.7097 | 0.6954 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0270 | -0.1701 | 0.9802 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.005 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |