| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 22 | D- | 0.3364 | A- | -0.013 |
| Manifold | 38 | F | 0.4329 | C- | +0.012 |
| Metaculus | 5 | F | 0.3958 | D | +0.024 |
| Polymarket | 29 | D | 0.2519 | A- | -0.010 |
| Overall | 94 | D- | 0.3525 | B | 0.0001 |
Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=146,947 markets
Source: brier.fyi
Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=146,947 markets
Source: brier.fyi
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.002 |
| Manifold | C | +0.005 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.003 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | A | -0.021 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.044 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | B | -0.006 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.007 |
| Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
| Manifold | A- | -0.010 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | B+ | -0.010 |
| Metaculus | D+ | +0.012 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.024 |