Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0016 | -0.0408 | 0.9991 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0028 | -0.0548 | 0.9984 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0305 | 0.9995 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.005 | +0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1556 | -0.5017 | 0.8379 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2333 | -0.6598 | 0.7307 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0027 | -0.0532 | 0.9985 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0122 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.006 | +0.019 | +0.006 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0590 | -0.2784 | 0.9521 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.1507 | -0.4913 | 0.8444 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0017 | -0.0419 | 0.9991 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0075 | 1.0000 |
| Relative Score | C- | +0.007 | -0.020 | -0.007 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0721 | -0.2736 | 0.9297 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1289 | -0.4020 | 0.8578 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0018 | -0.0418 | 0.9990 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0099 | 0.9999 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | A | -0.021 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.044 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
| Manifold | A- | -0.010 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |