Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.9237 | -3.2470 | 0.0404 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4124 | -1.0278 | 0.4867 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0334 | -0.2017 | 0.9759 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0029 | -0.0557 | 0.9984 |
| Relative Score | C- | +0.007 | -0.022 | -0.007 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0081 | -0.0943 | 0.9951 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0281 | -0.1836 | 0.9803 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0324 | -0.1985 | 0.9767 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0030 | -0.0566 | 0.9983 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.007 | +0.022 | +0.007 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4659 | -1.6706 | 0.5178 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2203 | -0.6057 | 0.7335 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0329 | -0.2001 | 0.9763 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0030 | -0.0561 | 0.9983 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | A | -0.021 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.044 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | B | -0.006 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.007 |
| Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
| Manifold | A- | -0.010 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |