Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.8116 | -2.3118 | 0.1093 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.7310 | -1.9309 | 0.1672 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.8432 | -2.5039 | 0.0887 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.3489 | -0.8932 | 0.5696 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.024 | +0.082 | +0.022 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7140 | -1.8643 | 0.1804 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.6337 | -1.5898 | 0.2482 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.8190 | -2.3539 | 0.1044 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4356 | -1.0788 | 0.4580 |
| Relative Score | D | +0.024 | -0.082 | -0.022 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7628 | -2.0880 | 0.1449 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.6823 | -1.7604 | 0.2077 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.8311 | -2.4289 | 0.0965 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.3922 | -0.9860 | 0.5138 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | A | -0.021 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.044 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | B | -0.006 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.007 |
| Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
| Manifold | A- | -0.010 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |