Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.6271 | -1.5699 | 0.2541 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4955 | -1.2172 | 0.3877 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0739 | -0.3172 | 0.9368 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0058 | -0.0795 | 0.9966 |
| Relative Score | D+ | +0.013 | -0.056 | -0.011 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0016 | -0.0408 | 0.9991 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0048 | -0.0717 | 0.9973 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0016 | -0.0408 | 0.9991 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0202 | 0.9998 |
| Relative Score | A- | -0.013 | +0.056 | +0.011 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3144 | -0.8053 | 0.6266 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2502 | -0.6444 | 0.6925 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0377 | -0.1790 | 0.9680 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0031 | -0.0499 | 0.9982 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.005 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |