Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0525 | -0.2602 | 0.9586 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0634 | -0.2899 | 0.9478 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0005 | -0.0220 | 0.9998 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0147 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.007 | +0.016 | +0.010 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B- | 0.0379 | -0.2166 | 0.9720 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0692 | -0.3053 | 0.9418 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0007 | -0.0276 | 0.9996 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0189 | 0.9998 |
| Relative Score | C- | +0.007 | -0.016 | -0.010 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0452 | -0.2384 | 0.9653 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0663 | -0.2976 | 0.9448 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0248 | 0.9997 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0168 | 0.9999 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | F | +0.036 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.032 |