We'll examine if, as of January 1st, 2024, the most likely Democratic nominee for President is Joe Biden based on traders' opinions. The resolution criteria will depend on the credibility and existence of two platforms: Polymarket and Manifold. If either stops being credible or no longer exists, the market with the most traders from the alternative platform will be used. Scott Alexander's judgment will serve as the final authority for resolving this question, which is part of his 2023 prediction contest.