Will Biden drop out of the 2024 presidential race?
  • 303
  • 4,467
  • $21,135,390
This market resolves to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race. The primary resolution source will be official information from Joe Biden or his legal representatives, with a consensus of credible reporting also considered. Events that do not meet the criteria for a "Yes" resolution include canceling campaign events suggestive of withdrawal, temporary suspensions of the campaign, and false announcements. A formal statement or action by the Biden-Harris Campaign is required to officially release pledged delegates. If Joe Biden does not drop out by 12:01 AM ET on November 5, 2024, the market resolves to "No".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2023NovDecJan2024FebMarAprMayJunJul

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 10
  • 172
  • $13,000

Will Joe Biden drop out of the 2024 Presidential Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3809
-0.9602
0.5271
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.1924
-0.5774
0.7880
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.3247
-0.8436
0.6025
Relative Score
A
-0.017
+0.037
+0.023
  • Metaculus
  • 6
  • 187

Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0168
-0.1388
0.9891
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.1810
-0.5541
0.8037
Relative Score
F
+0.069
-0.175
-0.074
  • Polymarket
  • 304
  • 4,108
  • $21,122,390

Biden drops out of presidential race?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5402
-1.3280
0.3392
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5670
-1.3983
0.3117
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5402
-1.3280
0.3392
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.3364
-0.8675
0.5865
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.008
-0.004
  • Overall
  • 303
  • 4,467
  • $21,135,390
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.3126
-0.8090
0.6185
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.3134
-0.8432
0.6345
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5402
-1.3280
0.3392
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.3306
-0.8555
0.5945

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