Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1432 | -0.4756 | 0.8541 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0658 | -0.2965 | 0.9453 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.002 | +0.001 | -0.003 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1332 | -0.4541 | 0.8670 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0946 | -0.3674 | 0.9139 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | -0.001 | +0.003 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1382 | -0.4648 | 0.8605 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0802 | -0.3320 | 0.9296 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.012 |
| Metaculus | A- | -0.011 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | A | -0.017 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.069 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |