Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0029 | -0.0552 | 0.9984 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0044 | -0.0688 | 0.9975 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0027 | -0.0534 | 0.9985 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0018 | -0.0428 | 0.9990 |
| Relative Score | B- | -0.002 | +0.016 | +0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0132 | -0.1222 | 0.9917 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A- | 0.0082 | -0.0946 | 0.9951 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0020 | -0.0460 | 0.9989 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0036 | -0.0619 | 0.9980 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.016 | -0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0081 | -0.0887 | 0.9950 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0063 | -0.0817 | 0.9963 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0024 | -0.0497 | 0.9987 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0027 | -0.0524 | 0.9985 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |