Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0607 | -0.2829 | 0.9505 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0062 | -0.0819 | 0.9964 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0144 | -0.1278 | 0.9908 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0585 | -0.2769 | 0.9527 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0969 | -0.3729 | 0.9112 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1089 | -0.4006 | 0.8970 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0577 | -0.2747 | 0.9535 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0348 | -0.2066 | 0.9747 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.010 | +0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1593 | -0.5094 | 0.8329 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0994 | -0.3788 | 0.9083 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0169 | -0.1393 | 0.9890 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0495 | -0.2517 | 0.9614 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.007 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.1057 | -0.3884 | 0.8982 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0715 | -0.2871 | 0.9339 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0297 | -0.1806 | 0.9778 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0476 | -0.2450 | 0.9629 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.003 |
| Manifold | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.002 |