Will Martin Heinrich (D) win the 2024 New Mexico Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 54
  • $30,840
This market covers the outcome of the 2024 New Mexico Senate election, with a resolution to "Yes" if the Democratic candidate wins and "No" otherwise. The outcome is determined by the official certification or by when all three major news organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, NBC) call the race for the same candidate. If the winning candidate switches party affiliations after Election Day, the market will still resolve to the original party affiliation. The resolution criteria are based on the local, state, and federal governments' determinations, with intervening events not affecting the outcome if they occur after Election Day.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 279
  • 19
  • $21

New Mexico US Senate Race: Martin Heinrich vs. Nella Domenici | Martin Heinrich (Democratic Party)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0017
-0.0423
0.9991
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0058
-0.0795
0.9966
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0098
-0.1043
0.9940
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0027
-0.0536
0.9985
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.008
+0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 209
  • 35
  • $30,819

Will a Democrat win New Mexico US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0182
-0.1450
0.9880
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0093
-0.1016
0.9943
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0042
-0.0672
0.9976
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.008
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 54
  • $30,840
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0100
-0.0937
0.9936
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0076
-0.0905
0.9955
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0070
-0.0857
0.9958
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0032
-0.0577
0.9982

Similar Questions

Will Jacky Rosen (D) win the 2024 Nevada Senate seat?
  • 807
  • $3,694,527
Kalshi
C
+0.001
Manifold
C
+0.002
Polymarket
C+
-0.001
Will Ted Cruz (R) win the 2024 Texas Senate seat?
  • 539
  • $2,749,933
Kalshi
C
+0.003
Manifold
C
+0.002
Polymarket
C+
-0.002
Will Tim Sheehy (R) win the 2024 Montana Senate seat?
  • 595
  • $999,827
Kalshi
C
+0.000
Manifold
A
-0.021
Polymarket
D
+0.021
Will Andy Kim (D) win the 2024 New Jersey Senate seat?
  • 209
  • $130,423
Manifold
B-
-0.002
Polymarket
C
+0.002
Will Kirsten Gillibrand (D) win the 2024 New York Senate seat?
  • 152
  • $80,919
Manifold
C+
-0.001
Polymarket
C
+0.001
Will Chris Murphy (D) win the 2024 Connecticut Senate seat?
  • 66
  • $70,688
Manifold
C+
-0.001
Polymarket
C
+0.001