Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B- | 0.0330 | -0.2006 | 0.9762 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0064 | -0.0832 | 0.9963 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0293 | -0.1876 | 0.9794 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0340 | -0.2038 | 0.9754 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.003 | -0.010 | -0.003 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0118 | -0.1150 | 0.9927 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0257 | -0.1748 | 0.9822 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0575 | -0.2742 | 0.9537 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0243 | -0.1693 | 0.9834 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.005 | -0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0132 | -0.1222 | 0.9917 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0235 | -0.1664 | 0.9840 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0286 | -0.1853 | 0.9799 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0371 | -0.2138 | 0.9727 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | +0.003 | +0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0193 | -0.1459 | 0.9868 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0185 | -0.1415 | 0.9875 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0385 | -0.2157 | 0.9710 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0318 | -0.1956 | 0.9772 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |