Will Tim Sheehy (R) win the 2024 Montana Senate seat?
  • 279
  • 595
  • $999,827
This market resolves to "Yes" if Tim Sheehy or another representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2025. The resolution criteria depend on the local, state, and federal governments' determinations of the winner. If the major news organizations call the race, the market may resolve early, but only after those sources have agreed on the same candidate. A switch in party affiliation by the winning candidate will not affect the outcome if it occurs after Election Day. The resolution source is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, which must all agree before resolving.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 89
  • $377,514

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Montana? | :: or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0251
-0.1725
0.9827
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0054
-0.0761
0.9969
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0380
-0.2168
0.9719
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0284
-0.1844
0.9801
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.000
-0.000
  • Manifold
  • 279
  • 113
  • $1,126

Montana US Senate Race 2024: Jon Tester vs. Tim Sheehy | Tim Sheehy (Republican Party)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.1126
-0.4088
0.8926
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1006
-0.3815
0.9070
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0306
-0.1924
0.9782
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0238
-0.1675
0.9838
Relative Score
A
-0.021
+0.045
+0.027
  • Polymarket
  • 217
  • 482
  • $621,186

Will a Republican win Montana US Senate Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.1260
-0.4385
0.8761
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1272
-0.4410
0.8746
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0484
-0.2485
0.9624
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0256
-0.1744
0.9823
Relative Score
D
+0.021
-0.044
-0.027
  • Overall
  • 279
  • 595
  • $999,827
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0879
-0.3399
0.9171
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0777
-0.2995
0.9262
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0390
-0.2192
0.9709
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0259
-0.1754
0.9821

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