Will a Republican win the Nevada Presidential Election?
  • 309
  • 3,236
  • $11,876,513
This market resolves to "Yes" if Donald Trump or another representative of the Republican party wins Nevada in the 2024 presidential election. Another market resolves after the Associated Press calls the race, using sources such as Fox News and NBC for resolution. A third market resolves to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Nevada. A party is considered to represent the Republican Party if it has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable preference. Resolution occurs once all three specified sources call the race for the same candidate, or based on official certification if they haven't.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 92
  • $5,683,000

Will the Republican party win Nevada in the presidential election? | :: or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.1561
-0.5026
0.8373
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0249
-0.1717
0.9829
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2966
-0.7866
0.6415
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.1420
-0.4729
0.8557
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.007
-0.004
  • Manifold
  • 312
  • 507
  • $12,131

Which party will win the US Presidency in Nevada? | Republican Party

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2292
-0.6515
0.7365
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2237
-0.6404
0.7443
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2735
-0.7402
0.6739
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.1374
-0.4631
0.8617
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.006
-0.003
  • Polymarket
  • 247
  • 2,729
  • $6,181,382

Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0812
-0.3355
0.9289
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1978
-0.5883
0.7805
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2756
-0.7444
0.6709
7 Days Before Close
C
0.1156
-0.4155
0.8890
Relative Score
B-
-0.002
+0.006
+0.003
  • Overall
  • 309
  • 3,236
  • $11,876,513
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.1555
-0.4965
0.8342
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1488
-0.4668
0.8359
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2819
-0.7571
0.6621
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.1317
-0.4505
0.8688

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