Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0822 | -0.3378 | 0.9279 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0123 | -0.1174 | 0.9923 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.1090 | -0.4008 | 0.8969 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0602 | -0.2816 | 0.9510 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.002 | +0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.1829 | -0.5580 | 0.8011 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.1989 | -0.5905 | 0.7790 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.1955 | -0.5838 | 0.7836 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0834 | -0.3409 | 0.9265 |
| Relative Score | D+ | +0.013 | -0.028 | -0.017 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0870 | -0.3496 | 0.9225 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.1569 | -0.5043 | 0.8362 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.1133 | -0.4105 | 0.8917 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0625 | -0.2877 | 0.9487 |
| Relative Score | B+ | -0.009 | +0.019 | +0.012 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.1174 | -0.4151 | 0.8838 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1227 | -0.4040 | 0.8692 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.1393 | -0.4650 | 0.8574 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0687 | -0.3034 | 0.9420 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.004 |
| Manifold | D | +0.015 |
| Polymarket | B+ | -0.010 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.002 |
| Manifold | D- | +0.032 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.025 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.004 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.007 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.003 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.000 |
| Manifold | D | +0.019 |
| Polymarket | B+ | -0.009 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.003 |
| Manifold | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.002 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.003 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |