Will a Republican win the Michigan Presidential Election?
  • 309
  • 5,351
  • $15,164,604
This market resolves to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Michigan in the 2024 US presidential election. A candidate is considered to represent the party if they are the nominee or have a ballot-listed party preference. The resolution source includes the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; once these sources call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves. If not all three sources agree on the winner, the official certification in Michigan determines the outcome. A Republican candidate must win the popular vote to satisfy this market's resolution criteria.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 92
  • $6,728,815

Will the Republican party win Michigan in the presidential election? | :: or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2156
-0.6243
0.7556
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0320
-0.1972
0.9771
30 Days Before Close
D
0.3028
-0.7991
0.6328
7 Days Before Close
D
0.2997
-0.7929
0.6371
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.007
-0.006
  • Manifold
  • 309
  • 593
  • $8,574

Which party will win the US Presidency in Michigan? | Republican Party

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2226
-0.6383
0.7458
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.3197
-0.8333
0.6094
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3781
-0.9542
0.5308
7 Days Before Close
D
0.2809
-0.7550
0.6635
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.016
-0.009
  • Polymarket
  • 245
  • 4,758
  • $8,427,215

Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2070
-0.6070
0.7676
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2962
-0.7858
0.6420
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2756
-0.7444
0.6709
7 Days Before Close
D
0.2601
-0.7133
0.6928
Relative Score
B-
-0.003
+0.007
+0.004
  • Overall
  • 309
  • 5,351
  • $15,164,604
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2151
-0.6232
0.7563
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2160
-0.6055
0.7428
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.3188
-0.8326
0.6115
7 Days Before Close
D
0.2802
-0.7538
0.6645

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