Will Tom Barrett (R) win Michigan's 7th congressional district in the 2024 election?
  • 236
  • 14
  • $13,355
This market resolves to Yes if the Republican candidate wins the seat in Michigan's 7th congressional district in the 2024 election. To qualify, the Republican candidate must have won the majority of the votes cast in that district. Markets like this one assume the election will be decided based on the margin of victory. The resolution criteria can vary depending on the platform, but generally, it requires a significant majority or a specific threshold of votes to be counted.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 65
  • $12,258

Will Republican win the House race for MI-7? | :: Or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0022
-0.0484
0.9988
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
S
-0.141
+0.322
+0.176
  • Manifold
  • 229
  • 14
  • $1,097

2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy] | MI-07 OPEN (Slotkin) (D) - Won by 5.42% - Full Toss-up

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.1879
-0.5683
0.7942
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2846
-0.7624
0.6583
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.3419
-0.8788
0.5790
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.3223
-0.8387
0.6058
Relative Score
F
+0.141
-0.322
-0.176
  • Overall
  • 236
  • 14
  • $13,355
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0940
-0.2892
0.8971
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1434
-0.4054
0.8285
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.1710
-0.4444
0.7895
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.1612
-0.4244
0.8029

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