Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2129 | -0.6188 | 0.7594 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0299 | -0.1898 | 0.9789 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.3034 | -0.8003 | 0.6320 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2376 | -0.6684 | 0.7246 |
| Relative Score | B- | -0.003 | +0.008 | +0.003 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2530 | -0.6991 | 0.7029 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2835 | -0.7603 | 0.6598 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.3115 | -0.8166 | 0.6208 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2807 | -0.7546 | 0.6638 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.005 | -0.003 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.1892 | -0.5709 | 0.7924 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2701 | -0.7334 | 0.6787 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2756 | -0.7444 | 0.6709 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.1640 | -0.5192 | 0.8267 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.003 | -0.007 | -0.005 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2184 | -0.6296 | 0.7516 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.1945 | -0.5612 | 0.7724 |
| 30 Days Before Close | D | 0.2968 | -0.7871 | 0.6412 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.2274 | -0.6474 | 0.7384 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.004 |
| Manifold | D | +0.015 |
| Polymarket | B+ | -0.010 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.004 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.007 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.003 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | D+ | +0.013 |
| Polymarket | B+ | -0.009 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.003 |
| Manifold | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.002 |