Will a Republican win the Georgia Presidential Election?
  • 244
  • 3,734
  • $16,618,409
If Donald Trump or another representative of the Republican party wins Georgia in the 2024 presidential election, then the event has occurred. The resolution criteria is tied to the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks, with a yes outcome resolved within 48 hours after both sources declare a winner for the state. If the AP and Fox do not agree on the winner of the state, certification by the US Congress in January 2025 will be used instead. A Republican candidate needs to win the popular vote in Georgia to have this market resolve to "Yes". The outcome is based solely on the official certification, regardless of other sources' calls for the race.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 92
  • $10,159,128

Will the Republican party win Georgia in the presidential election? | :: or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0952
-0.3690
0.9132
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0140
-0.1261
0.9911
30 Days Before Close
C
0.1234
-0.4328
0.8793
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0732
-0.3155
0.9376
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.002
-0.000
  • Manifold
  • 43
  • 420
  • $1,711

Will Trump win Georgia in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.1422
-0.4733
0.8555
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1472
-0.4839
0.8490
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.1891
-0.5707
0.7925
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0874
-0.3504
0.9221
Relative Score
D
+0.019
-0.042
-0.025
  • Polymarket
  • 244
  • 3,314
  • $6,457,570

Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0625
-0.2877
0.9487
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1399
-0.4685
0.8584
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.1332
-0.4541
0.8670
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0702
-0.3079
0.9407
Relative Score
B+
-0.009
+0.019
+0.012
  • Overall
  • 244
  • 3,734
  • $16,618,409
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.1000
-0.3767
0.9058
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1004
-0.3595
0.8995
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.1486
-0.4859
0.8463
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0769
-0.3246
0.9335

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