Will Biden finish his term?
  • 890
  • 10,634
  • $65,015,804
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden successfully finishes his term as President of the United States of America without any interruptions. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2022Jan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 54
  • $394,297

Will President Biden resign before his term is up? | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0025
-0.0514
0.9986
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0408
0.9991
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.004
+0.000
  • Manifold
  • 205
  • 2,456
  • $69,335

Will Biden finish his term?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0043
-0.0680
0.9975
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0064
-0.0832
0.9963
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0023
-0.0487
0.9988
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0100
0.9999
Relative Score
B
-0.005
+0.028
+0.003
  • Metaculus
  • 887
  • 237

Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0183
-0.1456
0.9879
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0209
-0.1560
0.9860
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0031
-0.0571
0.9983
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0030
-0.0566
0.9983
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
-0.004
+0.000
  • Polymarket
  • 206
  • 7,941
  • $64,552,172

Will Biden finish his term?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0110
-0.1109
0.9932
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0168
-0.1390
0.9891
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0030
-0.0566
0.9983
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0092
1.0000
Relative Score
C-
+0.009
-0.030
-0.009
  • Overall
  • 890
  • 10,634
  • $65,015,804
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0090
-0.0939
0.9943
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0116
-0.1074
0.9925
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0030
-0.0561
0.9983
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0292
0.9993

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