Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden?
  • 181
  • 3,946
  • $4,190,365
If President Biden grants any clemency to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025, or if he issues a blanket pardon that includes Hunter Biden within its scope, then the question resolves as Yes. The resolution criteria are based on publicly disclosed pardons and commutations issued by the Department of Justice databases, as well as credible sources in case those resources are unavailable. Secret pardons will not count unless they are publicly disclosed before January 21, 2025. In case of partial pardons or clemencies, the question still resolves as Yes. The market will resolve to "Yes" if Hunter Biden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by his father President Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2024AugSepOctNovDec

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 24
  • $769,943

Who will President Biden pardon before Jan 21, 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5625
-1.3863
0.3162
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4838
-1.1894
0.4009
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4624
-1.1394
0.4258
Relative Score
A
-0.035
+0.091
+0.038
  • Manifold
  • 175
  • 1,104
  • $18,701

Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden before Jan 21, 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5404
-1.3284
0.3390
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6796
-1.7393
0.2084
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6679
-1.6998
0.2182
7 Days Before Close
F
0.6068
-1.5095
0.2730
Relative Score
F
+0.066
-0.223
-0.057
  • Metaculus
  • 168
  • 115

Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5843
-1.4455
0.2946
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5568
-1.3712
0.3220
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5307
-1.3038
0.3492
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5554
-1.3674
0.3235
Relative Score
A+
-0.046
+0.116
+0.046
  • Polymarket
  • 181
  • 2,727
  • $3,401,721

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6889
-1.7720
0.2007
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.6185
-1.5439
0.2620
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4900
-1.2040
0.3939
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5184
-1.2730
0.3624
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.003
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 181
  • 3,946
  • $4,190,365
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5940
-1.4830
0.2876
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5847
-1.4609
0.2983
30 Days Before Close
F
0.5629
-1.4025
0.3204
7 Days Before Close
F
0.5357
-1.3223
0.3462

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