Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0400 | -0.2231 | 0.9701 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0152 | -0.1314 | 0.9903 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0171 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0095 | 1.0000 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.007 | +0.024 | +0.006 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0602 | -0.2815 | 0.9510 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0261 | -0.1762 | 0.9819 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0142 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0126 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | D+ | +0.011 | -0.041 | -0.010 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0042 | -0.0672 | 0.9976 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0057 | -0.0785 | 0.9967 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0146 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0065 | 1.0000 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.000 | +0.001 | +0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B- | 0.0348 | -0.1906 | 0.9729 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0157 | -0.1287 | 0.9896 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0153 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0095 | 1.0000 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.000 |
| Manifold | B | -0.005 |
| Metaculus | C+ | -0.000 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.009 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.001 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | A | -0.017 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.069 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.035 |
| Manifold | F | +0.066 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.046 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |