Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic nominee for Vice President?
  • 33
  • 3,616
  • $12,981,560
A prediction that Tim Walz will be the 2024 Democratic nominee for Vice President resolves to "Yes" if he is officially chosen by the DNC and listed as the nominee, with any duplicate entries resolving to the earlier version. If Walz is unambiguously selected but not listed as the nominee, the market resolves to "No". The resolution source will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including the party's website. Replacement of the nominee before election day does not affect the market's outcome. The market closes at the end of the Democratic National Convention in 2024.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability7Jul1421284Aug

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 25
  • 2,120
  • $78,646

Who will be the 2024 Democratic nominee for VP? (Vice President) | Tim Walz

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8931
-2.9012
0.0581
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.8276
-2.4047
0.0988
7 Days Before Close
F
0.6365
-1.5984
0.2457
Relative Score
A-
-0.012
-0.013
+0.013
  • Polymarket
  • 34
  • 1,496
  • $12,902,914

Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.9771
-4.4654
0.0116
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.8884
-2.8566
0.0609
30 Days Before Close
F
0.9771
-4.4654
0.0116
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7106
-1.8515
0.1831
Relative Score
D+
+0.012
+0.013
-0.013
  • Overall
  • 33
  • 3,616
  • $12,981,560
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.9351
-3.6833
0.0348
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.8580
-2.6306
0.0798
30 Days Before Close
F
0.9771
-4.4654
0.0116
7 Days Before Close
F
0.6736
-1.7250
0.2144

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