Will the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President be a woman?
  • 311
  • 195
  • $294,028
A woman will win the 2024 Republican nomination for U.S. vice president if she is selected by the party's leaders or wins a majority of delegates at the convention. The resolution will be based on official GOP sources, including the party's website and press releases. Any change in the nominee before election day will not affect the outcome. The market will resolve to "Yes" if a woman becomes the Republican nominee for vice president, and "No" otherwise. The resolution source is a consensus of these official sources, providing a clear indicator of the party's decision.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2023NovDecJan2024FebMarAprMayJunJul

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 312
  • 52
  • $147

Will Republican VP nominee be a woman?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3673
-0.9316
0.5450
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2004
-0.5936
0.7769
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0457
-0.2405
0.9650
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0132
-0.1218
0.9917
Relative Score
A-
-0.016
+0.030
+0.022
  • Polymarket
  • 312
  • 143
  • $293,881

Will Republican VP nominee be a woman?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.3540
-0.9039
0.5627
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2201
-0.6332
0.7493
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0306
-0.1924
0.9782
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0110
-0.1109
0.9932
Relative Score
D
+0.016
-0.030
-0.022
  • Overall
  • 311
  • 195
  • $294,028
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3607
-0.9177
0.5538
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2102
-0.6134
0.7631
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0382
-0.2165
0.9716
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0121
-0.1164
0.9924

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