Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0676 | -0.3011 | 0.9435 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A- | 0.0082 | -0.0949 | 0.9951 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0703 | -0.3082 | 0.9406 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0257 | -0.1746 | 0.9823 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.006 | +0.018 | +0.005 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0650 | -0.2942 | 0.9462 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0538 | -0.2638 | 0.9573 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0736 | -0.3165 | 0.9372 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0280 | -0.1830 | 0.9804 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.003 | -0.009 | -0.002 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1311 | -0.4495 | 0.8697 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1161 | -0.4166 | 0.8884 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0919 | -0.3612 | 0.9170 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0580 | -0.2755 | 0.9532 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.004 | -0.013 | -0.004 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0915 | -0.3603 | 0.9174 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0874 | -0.3504 | 0.9221 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0743 | -0.3181 | 0.9365 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0289 | -0.1863 | 0.9797 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | +0.006 | +0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0888 | -0.3513 | 0.9192 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0664 | -0.2814 | 0.9407 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0775 | -0.3260 | 0.9328 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0351 | -0.2049 | 0.9739 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.027 |
| Manifold | F | +0.039 |
| Metaculus | A | -0.026 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.017 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.006 |
| Manifold | F | +0.058 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.060 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.002 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | F | +0.051 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.037 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.017 |
| Manifold | A | -0.021 |
| Polymarket | D- | +0.029 |
| Kalshi | B+ | -0.010 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.002 |