Will a Republican win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
  • 674
  • 18,015
  • $1,794,564,130
Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2023JulOctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 109
  • $262,334,200

Will Donald Trump or another Republican win the Presidency? | :: or another Republican

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.1847
-0.5617
0.7986
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0208
-0.1557
0.9861
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2513
-0.6958
0.7052
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.1351
-0.4582
0.8646
Relative Score
A
-0.027
+0.054
+0.037
  • Manifold
  • 462
  • 8,288
  • $750,630

Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Donald Trump

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2414
-0.6759
0.7193
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.3230
-0.8401
0.6048
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2983
-0.7900
0.6391
7 Days Before Close
D
0.2021
-0.5970
0.7746
Relative Score
F
+0.039
-0.083
-0.050
  • Metaculus
  • 1,367
  • 1,041

Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.3206
-0.8353
0.6081
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2778
-0.7487
0.6679
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2959
-0.7852
0.6424
7 Days Before Close
D
0.1982
-0.5892
0.7799
Relative Score
A
-0.026
+0.057
+0.032
  • Polymarket
  • 307
  • 8,686
  • $1,531,479,300

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1980
-0.5888
0.7802
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2240
-0.6411
0.7438
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2485
-0.6902
0.7092
7 Days Before Close
C
0.1158
-0.4160
0.8887
Relative Score
A
-0.017
+0.035
+0.024
  • Overall
  • 674
  • 18,015
  • $1,794,564,130
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2362
-0.6654
0.7265
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2114
-0.5964
0.7507
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2735
-0.7403
0.6740
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.1628
-0.5151
0.8269

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