Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination?
  • 1,410
  • 4,010
  • $6,573,189
Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, stating at a rally that he will "be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before". Polling frequently shows him as the top choice among respondents. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is seen as a potential alternative but hasn't publicly expressed his intention to run. Former Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions, stating he would seek the nomination if Trump were also running. This question will resolve as Yes for the candidate selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee and No for all other candidates.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability2021202220232024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 930
  • 1,956
  • $20,729

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2500
-0.6931
0.7071
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.1263
-0.4391
0.8757
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0268
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0121
0.9999
Relative Score
D
+0.021
-0.043
-0.029
  • Metaculus
  • 1,409
  • 1,229

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2083
-0.6095
0.7659
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2085
-0.6100
0.7656
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0238
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0205
0.9998
Relative Score
A-
-0.013
+0.028
+0.017
  • Polymarket
  • 608
  • 825
  • $6,552,461

[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0841
-0.3425
0.9258
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0701
-0.3075
0.9409
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0248
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0080
1.0000
Relative Score
A-
-0.012
+0.016
+0.017
  • Overall
  • 1,410
  • 4,010
  • $6,573,189
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.1808
-0.5484
0.7996
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1350
-0.4522
0.8607
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0251
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0136
0.9999

Similar Questions

Will a Republican win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
  • 18,015
  • $1,794,564,130
Kalshi
A
-0.027
Manifold
F
+0.039
Metaculus
A
-0.026
Polymarket
A
-0.017
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
  • 6,965
  • $54,657,350
Manifold
D+
+0.012
Metaculus
A-
-0.011
Polymarket
C
+0.001
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
  • 7,506
  • $156,704,030
Kalshi
C
+0.001
Manifold
F
+0.036
Polymarket
A
-0.032
At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?
  • 963
  • $2,938
Manifold
B+
-0.009
Metaculus
C-
+0.009
Will Trump win the 2024 Iowa Caucus?
  • 119
  • $94,786
Manifold
C-
+0.007
Polymarket
B
-0.007
At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?
  • 368
  • $755
Manifold
B
-0.007
Metaculus
C-
+0.007