Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.3149 | -0.8236 | 0.6160 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0282 | -0.1840 | 0.9802 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5005 | -1.2290 | 0.3822 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.3334 | -0.8613 | 0.5906 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.001 | +0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5222 | -1.2824 | 0.3583 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.4881 | -1.1995 | 0.3960 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5596 | -1.3787 | 0.3191 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.4422 | -1.0937 | 0.4499 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.051 | -0.116 | -0.062 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4290 | -1.0642 | 0.4660 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3694 | -0.9359 | 0.5422 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.4658 | -1.1473 | 0.4218 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D | 0.3025 | -0.7985 | 0.6332 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.037 | +0.084 | +0.045 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.4220 | -1.0567 | 0.4801 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2953 | -0.7731 | 0.6395 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5086 | -1.2517 | 0.3744 |
| 7 Days Before Close | D- | 0.3594 | -0.9178 | 0.5579 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.006 |
| Manifold | F | +0.058 |
| Metaculus | A+ | -0.060 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.002 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.004 |
| Manifold | D | +0.015 |
| Polymarket | B+ | -0.010 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.006 |
| Manifold | C | +0.003 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.002 |
| Kalshi | B- | -0.003 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.003 |