Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0089 | -0.0989 | 0.9946 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0023 | -0.0489 | 0.9987 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0197 | -0.1514 | 0.9869 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0060 | -0.0809 | 0.9965 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | +0.008 | +0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A- | 0.0093 | -0.1014 | 0.9944 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0202 | -0.1534 | 0.9865 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0405 | -0.2248 | 0.9697 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0025 | -0.0513 | 0.9986 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.003 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0132 | -0.1222 | 0.9917 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0185 | -0.1463 | 0.9878 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0324 | -0.1985 | 0.9767 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0064 | -0.0834 | 0.9962 |
| Relative Score | C+ | -0.000 | -0.000 | +0.000 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0105 | -0.1075 | 0.9936 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0137 | -0.1162 | 0.9910 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0309 | -0.1916 | 0.9778 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0050 | -0.0718 | 0.9971 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.006 |
| Manifold | C | +0.003 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.004 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.002 |
| Kalshi | B+ | -0.010 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.002 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C | +0.002 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.008 |
| Manifold | D | +0.016 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |