Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0113 | -0.1123 | 0.9930 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0874 | -0.3504 | 0.9221 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0058 | -0.0791 | 0.9966 |
| Relative Score | B- | -0.003 | +0.008 | +0.005 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.5112 | -1.2553 | 0.3703 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.3939 | -0.9879 | 0.5102 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5112 | -1.2553 | 0.3703 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0100 | -0.1054 | 0.9939 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.003 | -0.008 | -0.005 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D | 0.2613 | -0.6838 | 0.6816 |
| Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.2407 | -0.6691 | 0.7162 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.5112 | -1.2553 | 0.3703 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0079 | -0.0922 | 0.9953 |
| Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
| Manifold | A | -0.021 |
| Metaculus | F | +0.044 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |
| Kalshi | C | +0.001 |
| Manifold | C- | +0.008 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.001 |