Will January 2025 be the hottest January on record?
  • 88
  • 1,824
  • $4,375,696
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any prior January when it is released, with a primary resolution source being the figures from NASA's data. If 2025 January is tied for highest with another year, it must be higher to resolve the market to "Yes". The market will be resolved based on information available by May 1, 2025, or a consensus of credible sources if no information is provided. The resolution criteria also consider the comparison of 2025 January data to all previous January data points. The primary source for this market is NASA's Global Temperature Index table, under the column "Jan".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability24Nov1Dec81522295Jan1219262Feb9

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 46
  • $882,092

Will Jan 2025 be the hottest Jan ever? | Jan 2025

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.1089
-0.4005
0.8971
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1332
-0.4541
0.8670
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2500
-0.6931
0.7071
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
Relative Score
D-
+0.025
-0.089
-0.024
  • Manifold
  • 88
  • 36
  • $173

Will January 2025 be the hottest January ever? [NCEI]

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6032
-1.4991
0.2763
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.2662
-0.7255
0.6842
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3673
-0.9315
0.5450
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0243
-0.1696
0.9834
Relative Score
F
+0.044
-0.095
-0.057
  • Polymarket
  • 44
  • 1,788
  • $3,493,430

2025 January hottest on record?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0132
-0.1222
0.9917
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0439
-0.2350
0.9667
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.1406
-0.4700
0.8575
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0136
0.9999
Relative Score
S
-0.085
+0.229
+0.101
  • Overall
  • 88
  • 1,824
  • $4,375,696
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.2418
-0.6739
0.7217
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.1478
-0.4715
0.8393
30 Days Before Close
D
0.2526
-0.6982
0.7032
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0090
-0.0781
0.9940

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