If data for 2022 shows an increase of more than 1.02°C in global surface temperature, indicating it to be the hottest year on record, this market will resolve as "YES." The resolution criteria are tied to NASA's Global Temperature Index and its GISS Surface Temperature Analysis. Markets on different platforms expire at different times: some by the first 10:00 AM following data release or April 1, 2023, while others use a related question on Metaculus with a specific year in context. Previous years have set a long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years, and 2016 remaining the current hottest year on record through 2020.