Category: Science
  • 82
  • 27,960
  • $28,112,000
Following advances across scientific disciplines, from climate research to space exploration and biotechnology. When will the next advances happen, and how much of an impact will they have?
Platform Markets Midpoint Brier Relative Score
Kalshi
20
C
0.1046
C+
+0.004
Manifold
31
D
0.1946
C
+0.008
Metaculus
15
D
0.2286
A-
-0.006
Polymarket
16
C
0.0622
A
-0.025
Overall
82
C-
0.1530
B
-0.0021

Charts

Calibration Plot

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
0102030405060708090100↑ Resolution0102030405060708090100Prediction (Midpoint) →

Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=39,012 markets

Source: brier.fyi

Accuracy Histogram

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,000↑ Count0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0Midpoint Brier score →

Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=39,012 markets

Source: brier.fyi

See all charts

Questions

Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
  • 3,650
  • $662,333
Kalshi
B
-0.005
Manifold
C-
+0.007
Polymarket
C
+0.003
Will NASA land humans on the moon again before 2025?
  • 885
  • $106,521
Kalshi
C
+0.005
Manifold
C
+0.000
Metaculus
B-
-0.003
Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?
  • 1,423
  • $874,223
Kalshi
D
+0.022
Manifold
A
-0.021
Polymarket
C
+0.001
Will July 2024 be the hottest July on record?
  • 1,266
  • $2,730,812
Kalshi
F
+0.105
Manifold
A
-0.038
Polymarket
S
-0.249
Will January 2025 be the hottest January on record?
  • 1,824
  • $4,375,696
Kalshi
D-
+0.025
Manifold
F
+0.044
Polymarket
S
-0.085
Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?
  • 1,361
  • $453,721
Kalshi
C
+0.002
Manifold
B
-0.004
Polymarket
C
+0.001
See all questions