Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0025 | -0.0513 | 0.9986 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A- | 0.0068 | -0.0863 | 0.9960 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0025 | -0.0513 | 0.9986 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0016 | -0.0408 | 0.9991 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.017 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0019 | -0.0445 | 0.9990 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0011 | -0.0330 | 0.9994 |
| 30 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0058 | 1.0000 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0111 | 0.9999 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.004 | +0.037 | +0.003 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0056 | -0.0780 | 0.9967 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0052 | -0.0746 | 0.9970 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0106 | 0.9999 |
| 7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0065 | 1.0000 |
| Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.005 | -0.001 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0033 | -0.0579 | 0.9981 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0043 | -0.0646 | 0.9975 |
| 30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0226 | 0.9995 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0195 | 0.9997 |
| Manifold | A | -0.019 |
| Metaculus | D+ | +0.015 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.006 |