Will room-temperature superconductivity be reported by a major peer-reviewed journal before January 2025?
  • 518
  • 160
  • $281,862
A major peer-reviewed journal will report room-temperature superconductivity before December 31, 2024. The research must meet specific criteria: the material's critical temperature should be greater than room temperature and exhibit low electrical resistivity or the Meissner effect. Eligible journals are those in the top quartile of SJR's condensed matter physics journals or above a 1.0 SJR ranking. In contrast, this market focuses on discovering a room-temperature superconductor with a similar composition to LK-99 by 2025 and meets specific conditions regarding pressure, classification, and synthesis process. The resolution criteria in these markets differ, with one focusing solely on publication and the other on material discovery within a specified timeframe.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2023Jan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 519
  • $280,205

Will room-temperature superconductivity be reported by a major peer-reviewed journal? | By Dec 31, 2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0048
-0.0718
0.9972
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.014
-0.000
  • Manifold
  • 498
  • 160
  • $1,657

Will a room-temperature superconductor with a similar-but-different composition to LK-99 be discovered by 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0013
-0.0369
0.9993
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0019
-0.0448
0.9990
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0132
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0132
0.9999
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.014
+0.000
  • Overall
  • 518
  • 160
  • $281,862
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0025
-0.0494
0.9986
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0034
-0.0583
0.9981
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0116
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0116
0.9999

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