Category: Economics
  • 80
  • 66,243
  • $119,133,055
Predictions for financial markets, economic indicators, and cryptocurrency. Includes forecasts on inflation, interest rates, commodity prices, and major economic developments worldwide.
Platform Markets Midpoint Brier Relative Score
Kalshi
13
C
0.0727
A-
-0.008
Manifold
34
C
0.1218
C-
+0.010
Metaculus
17
C
0.1201
C+
+0.003
Polymarket
16
C
0.1245
A-
-0.011
Overall
80
C
0.1140
B
0.0015

Charts

Calibration Plot

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
0102030405060708090100↑ Resolution0102030405060708090100Prediction (Midpoint) →

Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=329,587 markets

Source: brier.fyi

Accuracy Histogram

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000220,000↑ Count0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0Midpoint Brier score →

Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=329,587 markets

Source: brier.fyi

See all charts

Questions

Will Bitcoin hit $100k before January 2025?
  • 5,683
  • $24,062,377
Kalshi
D
+0.016
Manifold
F
+0.042
Metaculus
A
-0.016
Polymarket
A
-0.038
Will Ethereum hit $5k before January 2025?
  • 7,195
  • $19,564,533
Kalshi
A
-0.023
Manifold
B+
-0.009
Polymarket
F
+0.043
Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?
  • 2,056
  • $12,623,395
Manifold
C-
+0.007
Metaculus
B
-0.007
Polymarket
D
+0.018
Will Tether collapse before January 2025?
  • 6,189
  • $1,458,974
Manifold
C
+0.002
Metaculus
C
+0.002
Polymarket
B-
-0.004
Will Bitcoin hit $100k before December 2024?
  • 3,245
  • $30,076,768
Kalshi
C-
+0.007
Manifold
C-
+0.008
Polymarket
C
+0.001
Will USDC's market cap exceed USDT's market cap before January 2025?
  • 6,297
  • $6,194,788
Manifold
C
+0.001
Polymarket
C+
-0.001
See all questions