Will USDC's market cap exceed USDT's market cap before January 2025?
  • 558
  • 6,297
  • $6,194,788
This market is about whether USDC's market cap will surpass USDT's by the end of 2024. It compares daily market caps from various sources, including CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap, to determine if USDC's market cap exceeded USDT's for any day during this time frame. The resolution criteria are based on historical data available at the specified URLs, which will be updated if necessary. If USDC's market cap is greater than USDT's for any day, the market resolves to "Yes", otherwise it resolves to "No". The outcome is determined by December 31st market cap data, and CoinMarketCap's data will be used in case some data remains unavailable until January 1, 2025.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2023OctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 556
  • 6
  • $7

Will USDC's market cap exceed USDT's market cap by the end of 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0055
-0.0773
0.9968
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0094
-0.1021
0.9943
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0055
-0.0773
0.9968
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0055
-0.0773
0.9968
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.010
-0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 350
  • 6,291
  • $6,194,781

Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0026
-0.0518
0.9986
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0037
-0.0627
0.9979
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0136
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0030
1.0000
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.010
+0.001
  • Overall
  • 558
  • 6,297
  • $6,194,788
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0040
-0.0646
0.9977
Time-Weighted Average
A-
0.0066
-0.0824
0.9961
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0029
-0.0454
0.9983
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0028
-0.0402
0.9984

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