Will Tether collapse before January 2025?
  • 727
  • 6,189
  • $1,458,974
Tether's collapse before January 2025 can be triggered by a series of events including Tether trading below $0.8 for at least a month, or the suspension of USDT trades on multiple major exchanges for over seven days, or its price falling below $0.50 for more than seven consecutive days. The market also considers the possibility of trading being suspended across all USDT pairs for over seven days on major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and Uniswap. A consensus of credible reporting announcing Tether's insolvency by December 31, 2024, is another resolution criterion. Any of these conditions being met before January 1, 2025, will resolve the market as "Yes". The event can occur at any point in 2024, and its aftermath may still impact the price in 2025.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2023JulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 405
  • 20
  • $63

Will Tether collapse before 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0015
-0.0395
0.9992
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0129
-0.1204
0.9919
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0055
-0.0774
0.9968
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0033
-0.0588
0.9982
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.005
-0.002
  • Metaculus
  • 728
  • 79

Will Tether collapse before 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0775
-0.3264
0.9329
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0470
-0.2443
0.9638
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0028
-0.0546
0.9984
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0024
-0.0506
0.9987
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.014
-0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 351
  • 6,090
  • $1,458,910

Tether Insolvent in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0024
-0.0500
0.9987
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0033
-0.0591
0.9982
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0194
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0033
1.0000
Relative Score
B-
-0.004
+0.027
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 727
  • 6,189
  • $1,458,974
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0271
-0.1386
0.9769
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0210
-0.1413
0.9846
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0029
-0.0505
0.9983
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0019
-0.0376
0.9989

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