Category: Culture
  • 86
  • 27,273
  • $18,896,577
Questions about the most popular movies, TV, music, games, celebrities, and the awards surrounding it all. More broadly, questions about demographics, cultural trends, and societal issues.
Platform Markets Midpoint Brier Relative Score
Kalshi
22
D
0.2996
A-
-0.013
Manifold
30
D
0.2325
D+
+0.018
Metaculus
8
D
0.2018
F
+0.051
Polymarket
26
D+
0.1734
A-
-0.008
Overall
86
D
0.2290
C
0.0052

Charts

Calibration Plot

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
0102030405060708090100↑ Resolution0102030405060708090100Prediction (Midpoint) →

Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=24,618 markets

Source: brier.fyi

Accuracy Histogram

KalshiManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000↑ Count0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0Midpoint Brier score →

Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=24,618 markets

Source: brier.fyi

See all charts

Questions

Will "Inside Out 2" be the global highest-grossing movie in 2024?
  • 2,796
  • $8,910,313
Manifold
A+
-0.041
Polymarket
F
+0.041
Will Donald Trump be 2024 TIME Person of the Year?
  • 2,589
  • $1,039,693
Kalshi
A
-0.032
Manifold
D-
+0.032
Polymarket
C
+0.004
Will Anora win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
  • 2,738
  • $1,976,551
Kalshi
B-
-0.002
Manifold
B
-0.005
Metaculus
F
+0.195
Polymarket
C
+0.003
Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public before 2025?
  • 1,145
  • $273,034
Metaculus
A
-0.021
Polymarket
D
+0.021
Will "Astro Bot" win Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2024?
  • 1,933
  • $644,066
Kalshi
S
-0.177
Manifold
F
+0.159
Metaculus
F
+0.169
Polymarket
A-
-0.013
Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift get engaged before January 2025?
  • 1,487
  • $552,016
Manifold
A
-0.018
Polymarket
D
+0.018
See all questions