Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0788 | -0.3295 | 0.9316 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0879 | -0.3517 | 0.9215 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0238 | -0.1676 | 0.9838 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0052 | -0.0748 | 0.9970 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.018 | +0.039 | +0.023 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.1892 | -0.5709 | 0.7924 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1023 | -0.3853 | 0.9050 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0210 | -0.1567 | 0.9859 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0072 | -0.0888 | 0.9957 |
| Relative Score | D | +0.018 | -0.039 | -0.023 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.1340 | -0.4502 | 0.8620 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0951 | -0.3685 | 0.9132 |
| 30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0224 | -0.1621 | 0.9848 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0062 | -0.0818 | 0.9964 |
| Kalshi | A- | -0.011 |
| Manifold | F | +0.037 |
| Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |