Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7056 | -1.8326 | 0.1871 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.6536 | -1.6527 | 0.2305 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.029 | +0.082 | +0.030 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.9063 | -3.0370 | 0.0503 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.9030 | -3.0011 | 0.0523 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.8798 | -2.7806 | 0.0660 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.8497 | -2.5481 | 0.0846 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.106 | -0.469 | -0.080 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.6249 | -1.5630 | 0.2562 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.6531 | -1.6509 | 0.2310 |
| Relative Score | A | -0.038 | +0.124 | +0.034 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | F | 0.7456 | -2.1442 | 0.1645 |
| Time-Weighted Average | F | 0.7366 | -2.1016 | 0.1713 |
| 30 Days Before Close | F | 0.8798 | -2.7806 | 0.0660 |
| 7 Days Before Close | F | 0.8497 | -2.5481 | 0.0846 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.032 |
| Manifold | D- | +0.032 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.004 |