Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0973 | -0.3738 | 0.9108 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0954 | -0.3695 | 0.9130 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0453 | -0.2392 | 0.9654 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C+ | 0.0548 | -0.2666 | 0.9564 |
| Relative Score | B | -0.008 | +0.020 | +0.007 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.1220 | -0.4296 | 0.8811 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1123 | -0.4082 | 0.8930 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0745 | -0.3188 | 0.9362 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0925 | -0.3627 | 0.9163 |
| Relative Score | C- | +0.008 | -0.020 | -0.007 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.1096 | -0.4017 | 0.8960 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.1039 | -0.3888 | 0.9030 |
| 30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0599 | -0.2790 | 0.9508 |
| 7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0736 | -0.3146 | 0.9363 |
| Kalshi | A | -0.032 |
| Manifold | D- | +0.032 |
| Polymarket | C | +0.004 |
| Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
| Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |