Source: brier.fyi
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0681 | -0.3025 | 0.9429 |
| Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0724 | -0.3135 | 0.9384 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0209 | -0.1560 | 0.9860 |
| Relative Score | F | +0.045 | -0.143 | -0.045 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0020 | -0.0460 | 0.9989 |
| Time-Weighted Average | A | 0.0018 | -0.0428 | 0.9990 |
| 7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0007 | -0.0269 | 0.9996 |
| Relative Score | A+ | -0.045 | +0.143 | +0.045 |
| Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Market Midpoint | B- | 0.0351 | -0.1743 | 0.9709 |
| Time-Weighted Average | B- | 0.0371 | -0.1781 | 0.9687 |
| 7 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0108 | -0.0914 | 0.9928 |
| Manifold | C | +0.001 |
| Metaculus | C+ | -0.002 |
| Polymarket | D+ | +0.015 |